Setting Targets, Including Economy-Wide NDC Targets

It is important that targets are nationally determined and relevant to national circumstances and, as such, that enhancements of targets are made in nationally appropriate ways. Countries may wish to consider where opportunities for higher ambition lie by considering whether all IPCC sectors, categories, and gases were covered in the previous target. Then, countries can consider where it would be relevant/appropriate to include any further sectors/categories/gases. Countries may also wish to explore whether ambition in sectors already included in the previous NDC target can be raised. See “Opportunity: Disaggregating Targets Across Sectors and Government Levels”, and “Opportunity: Exploring Sector-Specific Opportunities.“ For example, technology costs may have sufficiently fallen since the last NDC to allow for greater unconditional ambition. The following strategies build on this, indicating different methods for enhancing NDC targets.

The GST “requests Parties that have not yet done so to revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets in their nationally determined contributions as necessary to align with the Paris Agreement temperature goal by the end of 2024, taking into account different national circumstances”. The UNFCCC Executive Secretary has echoed this in a Message to Parties and Observer States. For developing countries, this may involve raising the ambition of either the conditional or the unconditional components of targets. In the last round of NDCs, WRI produced “Enhancing NDCs by 2020: Resources for strengthening national climate action (WRI)” highlighting methods for “enhancing” NDCs. A participatory approach to deciding and setting targets, involving the Whole-of-Government and Society can be beneficial – see “Route: Mobilizes All-of-Government and All-of-Society).“ For guidance on translating GST outcomes into national mitigation targets, see: “Insights for designing mitigation elements in the next round of NDCs” (OECD). Also see “Opportunity: Exploring Sector Specific Opportunities” for more information on reflecting the GST global efforts and outcomes in the NDC, as a mechanism to raise ambition.

The GST “Encourages Parties to communicate in 2025 their nationally determined contributions with an end date of 2035”. By providing targets with later end dates in the NDCs 3.0, countries can use their NDC as roadmaps to longer-term goals. It may be helpful to align NDC targets with longer-term objectives, such as those in Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) – see also “Opportunity: Aligning the NDC with LT-LEDS and Net Zero Goals.” When setting such targets, it is helpful to distinguish between emission reduction targets (reducing the magnitude of GHG emissions) and emission removal targets (removing and sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere). To ensure targets reflect the highest possible ambition and are compatible with the Paris Agreement temperature goal, countries may wish to ensure their NDCs are informed by science and underpinned by evidence and data – see “Opportunity: Ensuring the NDC is Informed by Science.” A participatory approach to deciding and setting targets (i.e., involving the whole of government and society) can be beneficial –see also “Route: Mobilizes All-of-Government and All-of-Society).” For guidance on translating the GST outcomes into national mitigation targets, see: “Insights for designing mitigation elements in the next round of NDCs” (OECD). See also “Opportunity: Exploring Sector-Specific Opportunities” for more information on reflecting the GST global efforts and outcomes in the NDC as a mechanism to raise ambition.

The IPCC has set out global “carbon budgets,” which estimate the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions that can be released into the atmosphere while remaining within the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. By setting absolute targets, such as reducing GHG emissions 20per cent below 2015 levels by 2030, contributions to these global carbon budgets and alignment with the Paris Agreement temperature goal can be more transparent. This can also help with the aggregation of targets and overall transparency. Examples of these different types of targets can be found in the Pocket Guide to NDCs (ECBI). See also “Opportunity: Ensuring the NDC is Informed by Science” for more information on the IPCC’s carbon budgets.

The GST “Encourages Parties to come forward in their next nationally determined contributions with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances”. Broadening the scope of sectors included in NDC targets can facilitate opportunities to raise overall mitigation ambition. Utilizing the IPCC sectors for targets allows for clear links to the national GHG inventory, which supports tracking progress toward targets. Including additional sectors in NDC targets should be nationally appropriate, and any sectoral targets should ideally be underpinned by an assessment of how the target could be delivered to ensure they are implementable. Considering the technology needs for mitigation efforts in those sectors will be helpful in this regard – see “Route: Technology and Capacity-Building as Needs and Enablers.” A participatory process involving various stakeholders and sector actors can support integrating additional sectors into an NDC target – see also “Route: Mobilizes All-of-Government and All-of-Society”. Countries may wish to consider the metric used for any sector-specific targets carefully. For example, for targets on increasing renewable energy capacity, clarify whether the target refers to the additional capacity or total capacity. More details on opportunities to raise ambition in different sectors are provided under “Opportunity: Exploring Sector-Specific Opportunities.”

The GST “Encourages Parties to come forward in their next nationally determined contributions with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances”. Many NDC targets currently encompass carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrogen oxide (N₂O) as the primary gases significantly contributing to global warming. However, some targets focus solely on CO₂. Few NDCs include fluorinated gases (F-gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF₆, NF₃), which have very high global warming potentials (GWPs) and are prevalent in industry and/or as refrigerants. Data availability is often a challenge – see “Route: Technically Sound and Transparent Documents” for strategies to address such challenges. High GWP gases are receiving increasing attention in recent years, highlighted by the “Global Methane Pledge” launched at COP26, and the “Global Cooling Pledge” launched at COP28. Including these gases in NDC targets can raise the overall ambition for mitigation. Methane, in particular, with a short half-life in the atmosphere combined with a high GWP, can be considered a “quick win” gas for reducing emissions in some sectors (e.g., waste management, manure and sludge management in agriculture, and fugitive emissions in energy industries). Reductions in methane emissions can more rapidly impact warming than reductions in other gases. There are numerous co-benefits to addressing short-lived climate pollutants such as improved health and food security, as explored in this insight from WRI. By including mitigation actions related to climate forcers (beyond just CO₂) in NDCs, countries can contribute to both immediate climate benefits and long-term global warming reduction, while also addressing public health and environmental justice concerns. More detail on strategies to substantially reduce non-CO₂ emissions, particularly methane, is provided under “Opportunity: Exploring Sector-Specific Opportunities.”.

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement aims to enhance international cooperation between Parties, allowing for higher ambitions in mitigation and adaptation through Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) and/or non-market approaches, such as policy coordination, capacity-building, technology transfer, and financial support. The ITMOs, in particular, can contribute to higher mitigation ambitions of NDC targets through bilateral agreements and multilateral mechanisms. However, it is important to remember “corresponding adjustments,” a mechanism to prevent double-counting of the mitigation outcomes where a host country (a country in which an activity generating mitigation outcomes is located) cannot use the mitigation outcomes towards its own NDC target if it has been authorized, transferred and used towards another country’s NDC target. In stating the intention to utilize Article 6 towards achieving the NDC, it can be helpful for countries to specify which sectors they foresee using Article 6 in and whether the voluntary cooperation is about the conditional or unconditional component of the NDC. The NDC Partnership’s Conceptual Framework for Article 6 Readiness explores how countries can ensure they have the necessary systems in place to leverage opportunities associated with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. For more information, see also “Opportunity: Reflecting Article 6.”

In setting targets that reflect the highest possible ambition, it is important to consider what is genuinely “possible” from an implementation perspective. To ensure confidence in being able to implement the target, countries may wish to undertake emissions modeling to provide a data-driven evidence base for their target, which may be based on implemented, planned, and anticipated policies and measures and transparently communicate the underlying assumptions such as necessary actions. The Information to Facilitate Clarity, Transparency, and Understanding (ICTU), which all NDCs should include, requires information on the IPCC methodologies and metrics for estimating anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals. It is, therefore, useful to use IPCC approaches to assess whether targets are implementable through policies and actions. For more information on data considerations and ICTU, See: “Route: Technically Sound and Transparent Documents”.

To ensure an enabling environment for implementation underpins targets, countries may consider a range of factors, such as availability of technologies (see “Route: Technology and Capacity-Building as Needs and Enablers” for a range of opportunities around technology needs”); institutional mandates (see “Route: Mobilizes All-of-Government and All-of-Society”); and finance needs (see “Route: Unlocks Finance”). Developing an NDC implementation plan can help improve these aspects of the enabling environment for implementation (see CDKN’s “Planning for NDC implementation: A Quick-Start Guide”). Although not part of the NDC development process, this can be an impactful first step of the implementation process. Some countries have also enshrined their targets into national law with legally binding measures. Creating an enabling legal environment. Such a legal environment can effectively drive the implementation of targets set in the NDC and other climate plans, such as LT-LEDS.

Adapting to the impacts of climate change is a crucial component of climate action for many countries. Therefore, it is important to ensure that adaptation and mitigation efforts work in harmony, with each supporting the achievement of the other’s goal. Adaptation action can enhance mitigation ambition, and the mitigation impacts can be quantified and incorporated into targets and tracking processes. The UNFCCC explores such linkages through their “Information Paper on Linkages between Adaptation and Mitigation.” For more information, see “Opportunity: Amplifying the Mitigation-Adaptation Nexus.” and “Opportunity: Enhancing Nature-Based Solutions.”