About This Opportunity
Mitigation targets in NDCs are fundamental to signal each country’s contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal.
Article 4.4 of the Paris Agreement states that “Developed country Parties should continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets. Developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances.”
An economy-wide target covers all sectors of a country’s economy.
Reflecting the Global Stocktake
There are several outcomes of the GST that countries should consider reflecting in their NDC 3.0 targets, including:
- Paragraph 38: “Recalls Article 4, paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement, which provides that developed country Parties should continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets, and that developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances”;
- Paragraph 39: “Encourages Parties to come forward in their next nationally determined contributions with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances”;
- Paragraph 170: “Encourages Parties to communicate in 2025 their nationally determined contributions with an end date of 2035”;
- Paragraph 31: “Emphasizes the urgent need for accelerated implementation of domestic mitigation measures in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement, as well as the use of voluntary cooperation, referred to in Article 6, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement”;
- Paragraph 37: “Recalls Article 3 and Article 4, paragraphs 3, 4, 5 and 11, of the Paris Agreement and requests Parties that have not yet done so to revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets in their nationally determined contributions as necessary to align with the Paris Agreement temperature goal by the end of 2024, taking into account different national circumstances.”
Setting ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets can drive significant transformational change across all sectors. These changes can also deliver considerably more comprehensive benefits for societies, economies, and infrastructure such as the renewable transition of energy systems, electrification of the transport sector, improved waste management systems, more resource-efficient agriculture. Early and urgent mitigation action can significantly benefit cumulative emissions and carbon budgets, reducing the effort needed further down the line and helping to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Setting sector-specific targets can also help drive such transformational change – see “Opportunity: Disaggregating Targets Across Sectors and Government Levels.”
The targets in NDCs 3.0 must build on each country’s last NDC and reflect the highest possible ambition in line with each country’s national circumstances. They also need to be underpinned by evidence and data to become implementable.
The Mitigation Goal Standard (GHG Protocol) is a resource to help countries set targets, regardless of which strategy below is chosen.
The following strategies could help to implement this Opportunity:
Taking stock of opportunities that work best nationally to enhance the previous NDC target:
It is important that targets are nationally determined and relevant to national circumstances and, as such, that enhancements of targets are made in nationally appropriate ways. Countries may wish to consider where opportunities for higher ambition lie by considering whether all IPCC sectors, categories, and gases were covered in the previous target. Then, countries can consider where it would be relevant/appropriate to include any further sectors/categories/gases. Countries may also wish to explore whether ambition in sectors already included in the previous NDC target can be raised. See “Opportunity: Disaggregating Targets Across Sectors and Government Levels”, and “Opportunity: Exploring Sector-Specific Opportunities.“ For example, technology costs may have sufficiently fallen since the last NDC to allow for greater unconditional ambition. The following strategies build on this, indicating different methods for enhancing NDC targets.
Increasing the ambition of 2030 targets:
The GST “requests Parties that have not yet done so to revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets in their nationally determined contributions as necessary to align with the Paris Agreement temperature goal by the end of 2024, taking into account different national circumstances”. The UNFCCC Executive Secretary has echoed this in a Message to Parties and Observer States. For developing countries, this may involve raising the ambition of either the conditional or the unconditional components of targets. In the last round of NDCs, WRI produced “Enhancing NDCs by 2020: Resources for strengthening national climate action (WRI)” highlighting methods for “enhancing” NDCs. A participatory approach to deciding and setting targets, involving the Whole-of-Government and Society can be beneficial – see “Route: Mobilizes All-of-Government and All-of-Society).“ For guidance on translating GST outcomes into national mitigation targets, see: “Insights for designing mitigation elements in the next round of NDCs” (OECD). Also see “Opportunity: Exploring Sector Specific Opportunities” for more information on reflecting the GST global efforts and outcomes in the NDC, as a mechanism to raise ambition.
Setting 2035 targets:
The GST “Encourages Parties to communicate in 2025 their nationally determined contributions with an end date of 2035”. By providing targets with later end dates in the NDCs 3.0, countries can use their NDC as roadmaps to longer-term goals. It may be helpful to align NDC targets with longer-term objectives, such as those in Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) – see also “Opportunity: Aligning the NDC with LT-LEDS and Net Zero Goals.” When setting such targets, it is helpful to distinguish between emission reduction targets (reducing the magnitude of GHG emissions) and emission removal targets (removing and sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere). To ensure targets reflect the highest possible ambition and are compatible with the Paris Agreement temperature goal, countries may wish to ensure their NDCs are informed by science and underpinned by evidence and data – see “Opportunity: Ensuring the NDC is Informed by Science.” A participatory approach to deciding and setting targets (i.e., involving the whole of government and society) can be beneficial –see also “Route: Mobilizes All-of-Government and All-of-Society).” For guidance on translating the GST outcomes into national mitigation targets, see: “Insights for designing mitigation elements in the next round of NDCs” (OECD). See also “Opportunity: Exploring Sector-Specific Opportunities” for more information on reflecting the GST global efforts and outcomes in the NDC as a mechanism to raise ambition.
Setting absolute targets:
The IPCC has set out global “carbon budgets,” which estimate the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions that can be released into the atmosphere while remaining within the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. By setting absolute targets, such as reducing GHG emissions 20per cent below 2015 levels by 2030, contributions to these global carbon budgets and alignment with the Paris Agreement temperature goal can be more transparent. This can also help with the aggregation of targets and overall transparency. Examples of these different types of targets can be found in the Pocket Guide to NDCs (ECBI). See also “Opportunity: Ensuring the NDC is Informed by Science” for more information on the IPCC’s carbon budgets.
Adding sectors to NDC targets:
The GST “Encourages Parties to come forward in their next nationally determined contributions with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances”. Broadening the scope of sectors included in NDC targets can facilitate opportunities to raise overall mitigation ambition. Utilizing the IPCC sectors for targets allows for clear links to the national GHG inventory, which supports tracking progress toward targets. Including additional sectors in NDC targets should be nationally appropriate, and any sectoral targets should ideally be underpinned by an assessment of how the target could be delivered to ensure they are implementable. Considering the technology needs for mitigation efforts in those sectors will be helpful in this regard – see “Route: Technology and Capacity-Building as Needs and Enablers.” A participatory process involving various stakeholders and sector actors can support integrating additional sectors into an NDC target – see also “Route: Mobilizes All-of-Government and All-of-Society”. Countries may wish to consider the metric used for any sector-specific targets carefully. For example, for targets on increasing renewable energy capacity, clarify whether the target refers to the additional capacity or total capacity. More details on opportunities to raise ambition in different sectors are provided under “Opportunity: Exploring Sector-Specific Opportunities.”
Adding gases to NDC targets:
The GST “Encourages Parties to come forward in their next nationally determined contributions with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances”. Many NDC targets currently encompass carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrogen oxide (N2O) as the primary gases significantly contributing to global warming. However, some targets focus solely on CO2. Few NDCs include fluorinated gases (F-gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3), which have very high global warming potentials (GWPs) and are prevalent in industry and/or as refrigerants. Data availability is often a challenge – see “Route: Technically Sound and Transparent Documents” for strategies to address such challenges. High GWP gases are receiving increasing attention in recent years, highlighted by the “Global Methane Pledge” launched at COP26, and the “Global Cooling Pledge” launched at COP28. Including these gases in NDC targets can raise the overall ambition for mitigation. Methane, in particular, with a short half-life in the atmosphere combined with a high GWP, can be considered a “quick win” gas for reducing emissions in some sectors (e.g., waste management, manure and sludge management in agriculture, and fugitive emissions in energy industries). Reductions in methane emissions can more rapidly impact warming than reductions in other gases. There are numerous co-benefits to addressing short-lived climate pollutants such as improved health and food security, as explored in this insight from WRI. By including mitigation actions related to climate forcers (beyond just CO2) in NDCs, countries can contribute to both immediate climate benefits and long-term global warming reduction, while also addressing public health and environmental justice concerns. More detail on strategies to substantially reduce non-CO2 emissions, particularly methane, is provided under “Opportunity: Exploring Sector-Specific Opportunities.”.
Use of Article 6:
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement aims to enhance international cooperation between Parties, allowing for higher ambitions in mitigation and adaptation through Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) and/or non-market approaches, such as policy coordination, capacity-building, technology transfer, and financial support. The ITMOs, in particular, can contribute to higher mitigation ambitions of NDC targets through bilateral agreements and multilateral mechanisms. However, it is important to remember “corresponding adjustments,” a mechanism to prevent double-counting of the mitigation outcomes where a host country (a country in which an activity generating mitigation outcomes is located) cannot use the mitigation outcomes towards its own NDC target if it has been authorized, transferred and used towards another country’s NDC target. In stating the intention to utilize Article 6 towards achieving the NDC, it can be helpful for countries to specify which sectors they foresee using Article 6 in and whether the voluntary cooperation is about the conditional or unconditional component of the NDC. The NDC Partnership’s Conceptual Framework for Article 6 Readiness explores how countries can ensure they have the necessary systems in place to leverage opportunities associated with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. For more information, see also “Opportunity: Reflecting Article 6.”
Ensuring targets are implementable/feasible:
In setting targets that reflect the highest possible ambition, it is important to consider what is genuinely “possible” from an implementation perspective. To ensure confidence in being able to implement the target, countries may wish to undertake emissions modeling to provide a data-driven evidence base for their target, which may be based on implemented, planned, and anticipated policies and measures and transparently communicate the underlying assumptions such as necessary actions. The Information to Facilitate Clarity, Transparency, and Understanding (ICTU), which all NDCs should include, requires information on the IPCC methodologies and metrics for estimating anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals. It is, therefore, useful to use IPCC approaches to assess whether targets are implementable through policies and actions. For more information on data considerations and ICTU, See: “Route: Technically Sound and Transparent Documents”.
Creating an enabling environment to support target achievement:
To ensure an enabling environment for implementation underpins targets, countries may consider a range of factors, such as availability of technologies (see “Route: Technology and Capacity-Building as Needs and Enablers” for a range of opportunities around technology needs”); institutional mandates (see “Route: Mobilizes All-of-Government and All-of-Society”); and finance needs (see “Route: Unlocks Finance”). Developing an NDC implementation plan can help improve these aspects of the enabling environment for implementation (see CDKN’s “Planning for NDC implementation: A Quick-Start Guide”). Although not part of the NDC development process, this can be an impactful first step of the implementation process. Some countries have also enshrined their targets into national law with legally binding measures. Creating an enabling legal environment. Such a legal environment can effectively drive the implementation of targets set in the NDC and other climate plans, such as LT-LEDS.
Exploring opportunities and co-benefits at the adaptation-mitigation nexus:
Adapting to the impacts of climate change is a crucial component of climate action for many countries. Therefore, it is important to ensure that adaptation and mitigation efforts work in harmony, with each supporting the achievement of the other’s goal. Adaptation action can enhance mitigation ambition, and the mitigation impacts can be quantified and incorporated into targets and tracking processes. The UNFCCC explores such linkages through their “Information Paper on Linkages between Adaptation and Mitigation.” For more information, see “Opportunity: Amplifying the Mitigation-Adaptation Nexus.” and “Opportunity: Enhancing Nature-Based Solutions.”
Country Examples
Many countries increased the ambition of their mitigation target in their most recent NDC submissions.
The Republic of Korea significantly raised the ambition of their 2030 mitigation target in its latest NDC, moving from 24.4 per cent reduction below 2017 levels to 40 per cent reduction below 2018 levels by 2030. In setting this new target, the country re-assessed the mitigation potential of all sectors, detailing the latest approaches for decarbonization in each. The Republic of Korea has also incorporated emissions targets into national law, supporting their implementation. In 2021, the Republic of Korea introduced the Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth Act for Climate Change (or the Carbon Neutrality Act), which entered into force in March 2022. This law requires the government to cut GHG emissions by 35 percent or more from 2018 levels by 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. The Act acts as a legislative basis for the socioeconomic transition to ensure the Republic of Korea achieves the targets set out in its NDC. (Source: “Submission under the Paris Agreement: The Republic of Korea’s Enhanced Update of its First Nationally Determined Contribution”, UNFCCC)
Antigua and Barbuda is highly dependent on imported fossil fuels and has set a sectoral target of 86 per cent renewable energy generation from local resources in the electricity sector by 2030 in their revised NDC. They also highlight the importance of ensuring the energy transition facilitates a just transition, by creating, for example, green jobs. Many Small Island Developing States (SIDS) demonstrate high mitigation ambition in the face of high climate vulnerability, as detailed by UNDP. For many of these countries, ambitious mitigation goals are also driven by the substantial co-benefits of an energy transition. (Source: “Antigua and Barbuda Updated Nationally Determined Contribution”, UNFCCC)
Further Resources
The following guidance and tools can further support setting targets in NDCs:
GHG Protocol: Mitigation Goal Standard (WRI, No date)
The GHG Protocol Mitigation Goal Standard provides guidance for the designing of national and subnational mitigation goals and a standardized approach for assessing and reporting progress toward goal achievement. It includes guidance on emissions modeling to inform target setting, designing goals, and evaluating progress towards goals to inform target revision.
Enhancing NDCs by 2020: Resources for strengthening national climate action (WRI, 2020)
This brochure highlights methods for enhancing NDCs in various areas, including power, transport, forests, and agriculture, and addressing short-lived climate pollutants. It offers guidance and opportunities for enhancing NDCs, focusing on mitigation and adaptation strategies. This resource includes an “Updating National Emissions Projections” section for target setting.
Pocket Guide to NDCs (ECBI, 2020)
This guide provides a comprehensive overview of NDCs within the UNFCCC context. It outlines the NDC cycle, from planning and communicating to implementing and tracking progress. It serves as a reference for understanding the role of NDCs in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement and enhancing global climate efforts.
NDCs WeWant Checklist (WWF, No date)
This checklist outlines WWF’s criteria for robust NDCs, covering ambition, adaptation, finance, systemic change, inclusiveness, participation, sustainable development, and progress tracking. It emphasizes the importance of ambitious mitigation targets, clear adaptation goals, financial commitments, sectoral coverage, inclusiveness in NDC planning, contribution to sustainable development, and a transparent system for tracking progress.
Insights for designing mitigation elements in the next round of NDCs (OECD, 2024)
This paper explores how Parties can prepare enhanced NDCs that take forward GST1 outcomes on mitigation and relevant provisions on NDCs, building on lessons learned from successive NDCs and available follow-up opportunities to support this process. Insights from experiences highlight the interlinkages between enhancing NDC ambition and implementation.
How This Links to Other Routes
This Opportunity has several critical linkages to other Routes and their Opportunities. These include the following. Navigate to these to read more.
Route: Aligned to Paris Agreement Global Goal on Adaptation
Adaptation action can support enhanced mitigation ambition and vice versa when carefully assessed for co-benefits and trade-offs.
Route: Delivers a Just and Equitable Transition
Mitigation action should ensure a just and equitable transition to a low-carbon society.
Route: Mobilizes All-Of-Government and All-Of-Society
Economy-wide emissions reduction targets require ownership and understanding of these targets by all government ministries/departments and sector stakeholders.
Route: Technology and Capacity-Building as Needs and Enablers
Adding new sectors to targets or raising ambition in those already included in targets requires considering the technology needs for mitigation in each sector. This helps ensure targets are implementable.
Route: Technically Sound and Transparent Documents
NDC targets should reflect the highest possible ambition, be implementable, and align with national circumstances. To achieve this, targets should be based on transparent data and evidence.
Route: Unlocks Finance
For many developing countries, unlocking finance is crucial to ensuring NDC targets are implementable.
Additional Opportunities
The NDC 3.0 Navigator presents eight examples of Opportunities countries can pursue to enhance NDC ambition through alignment with the Paris Agreement temperature goal.